Islamic wealth management, avoiding future crises, Moody's says Islamic finance could reach $5 trillion

The Islamic wealth management report from Bank Sarasin raises one point which I believe is true across the Islamic finance industry: the diversification of assets is not nearly as expansive as in conventional finance and in many cases leaves investors with too much exposure to real estate. It also is too focused on transaction-based compensation for Islamic bankers. The emphasis is placed on deals and there is too little focus (and compensation based on) the long term needs of Muslim investors. As an asset manager myself, I have watched the Islamic finance industry expand, particularly in the issuance of sukuk, with much of the focus on new financial products that expand the financial structures used in conventional finance. That is not necessarily problematic because good diversification relies on different asset classes from which investors can choose. However, when the focus is on creating a diverse set of structures and not on the types of investments, there will be an unmet need. For example, the equity asset class has been the easy part with Islamic indexes being around for over 10 years now. However, there remains a shortage of fixed income-like products that is only partially filled by sukuk (for example, there is still no fixed income-substitute within the United States). A lot of the other structures being created have still focused on property finance. There can be many different ways created to provide investors with exposure to real estate markets, but that still only addresses one asset class. It may create diversification (e.g. geographical) within that asset class, but a focus on real estate markets as a predominant investment area leaves asset managers struggling to create a diversified portfolio for Muslim clients (whether or not they are exclusively focused on Muslim clients). Perhaps the (nearly) global property bust will will make other areas more attractive, but it may just create a new area where activity is concentrated. That would be a shame and would harm the investors that are the source for the Islamic finance business.

The CEO of Fajr Capital, Iqbal Khan, said that Malaysia can provide an example for reform within the Islamic finance industry, particularly to separate the utilitarian and financial intermediation roles to prevent the problems that arose during the credit crisis. Mr. Khan said that there should be a separation to prevent the need in a future crisis for Islamic investment banks to be bailed out the government to preserve the basic payment systems within the banking system. Those payment systems could then be backstopped if necessary but ""Everything else - Mudharabah-based, asset-based, unit trust and investment fund - goes into separate business. These two, never the twain shall meet, they have to be kept separate". I believe he is absolutely correct. The flaw with the universal banking model and allowing the investment banks and commercial banks to merge (in the U.S., this was through the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act) forced the government to bail out all or none of the banks and the combination of the two into large financial holding companies meant that in order to keep the payment systems intact, the investment banks had to be bailed out lest their losses endanger the institutions as a whole, which led to the crisis within the 'boring' areas of the credit markets unrelated to the investment banks' operations.

Moody's says that Islamic finance assets could grow to $5 trillion without providing a date by which this could be reached. They said assets were $950 billion in 2009, which is higher than previous estimates from other groups which were in the range of $800-$850 billion. Moody's says that Shari'ah-compliant derivatives, if 'employed with care', could provide a useful purpose for hedging purposes. The recent IIFM master agreement on Islamic derivatives includes a requirement that they only be used for hedging, not speculation. Moody's VP and Senior Credit Officer Anwar Hassoune cautioned that "IFIs aim to utilize derivative instruments to hedge against risk and to improve risk monitoring practices. However they are keen to do so in a Sharia-compliant manner, rather than imitating conventional derivative instruments, in order to avoid losing their special status as Sharia-compliant banks, which makes them very attractive to a large population of Muslims." Moody's warns that IFIs have weak asset-liability, investment, and liquidity risk management. An article published by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania discusses the role of ratings agencies within the Islamic finance industry, specifically within the sukuk market.

Other News

• An article in the Financial Post (Canada) discusses the recent UFANA conference in Toronto (at which I was a speaker).
  
• $4.67 billion in sukuk were issued in the first quarter of 2010 according to Zawya, compared with $0.63 billion in the same period in 2009. Malaysian issuers accounted for 53% of all new issues, Indonesia for 33.5% and Saudi Arabia with 9.6% from the Dar Al Arkan sukuk of $450 million. Malaysia is planning a US dollar-denominated sukuk.
  
• An opinion column in the Kuwait Times asks whether Islamic banking has enough focus on providing a competitive and quality product to ordinary people.
  
• A GCC-based VP at iShares offers an interesting view of the current state of Islamic indices.
  
• Just as private equity has faced significant headwinds over the past 2 years, so has the Islamic private equity industry and things are just starting to get back to doing deals.
  
• The New York City Bar is planning a seminar on Islamic law including a portion of the seminar covering Islamic finance.
  
• Indonesia's efforts to expand the share of its banking system made up by Islamic banks is described in an article from the Oxford Business Group. The government is planning a 5 trillion rupiah sukuk (555 million) issue on April 13.
  
• Standard Chartered's Islamic finance window has avoided Islamic hedge funds based on a concern that the arbun structure used to create short-selling-equivalent has not been widely accepted among Shari'ah scholars.
  
• An article describes what AAOIFI does and what it is working on now.
  
• Sudan, which has been largely cut off from capital markets since US economic sanctions were imposed in 2007 because of the genocide in Darfur, is issuing $300 million in sukuk.
  

Islamic banks v. conventional banks, Islamic finance & SRI, GE Capital sukuk

A study by two professors at Ajman University of Science and Technology found that Islamic banks outdid conventional banks. However, the study, as reported, only looked at four years of data for three Islamic and three conventional banks. Although it is useful to know that Islamic banks have outperformed conventional banks in the past four years (at least among a 6 bank sample), it is not really a useful finding for the industry as a whole.

The dangers of extrapolating using data on just a few institutions over a few years are well known, there is an additional hiccup that could reduce the value of the findings further. The sample period, 2006-2009, was one in which the conventional financial industry saw the most challenging events worldwide as global credit markets froze up and economic growth slowed. And this period was also accompanied by the impacts of these events on Islamic banks (I have long argued that they were susceptible to the financial crisis and economic downturn). However, the financial complexity of conventional banks versus Islamic banks is divergent and not just because of the requirements for Shari'ah-compliance.

Islamic banks are generally operating using primarily basic contracts like murabaha and ijara and have very little use of mudaraba and musharaka. They also have nearly no exposure to any derivatives products which have been particularly volatile. This volatility extends beyond the so-called toxic derivatives. For example, the volatility index, which is based on options on index components of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, reached record highs in 2008 and have been elevated for much of 2008 and 2009.

Islamic banks, therefore, are involved in lower risk investments compared to their conventional competitors. They also do not have significant exposure to the products which are widely held up as the 'preferred' Islamic products with profit-and-loss sharing. I offer this criticism only to put what I am reading about the study in context of where there might be questions remaining that cannot be answered based on the current experience in Islamic banking. I also should note that I have not read the study. I would appreciate if it were emailed to me so that I could give a more complete analysis.

An article about sustainable finance which criticizes the 'value-neutral' approach to finance points to Islamic finance as potentially providing an example and starting point for a sustainable financial industry that incorporates social welfare in the financial industry. While it acknowledges the limitations of Islamic finance as it currently is practiced (particularly the focus on negative screens and an absence of positive screens), it does demonstrate the benefits of Islamic finance as one method of implementing social responsibility in finance. In a related development, Islamic investment bank First Energy Bank is investing $1 billion in a Saudi solar plant.

GE Capital is planning its first sukuk, which is expected to be a 5-year sukuk of more than $500 million.

The Atlanta-based unit of Arcapita, the Bahraini private equity group is profiled in an Atlanta business newspaper, including a description of the group's investment strategy which differs from the stereotypical idea of private equity, "Arcapita, unlike some private equity firms, doesn’t have an exit requirement for its investments. Still, 'we don’t hold anything forever'" according to Charles Ogburn, the executive director and head of corporate investment.

Other News

• Saad Trading, Contracting & Financial Services announced that the Golden Belt 1 Sukuk Company, the issuer SPV for Saad's $650 million sukuk due in 2012, would be unable to make a periodic payment because the company's assets were frozen.
  
• The Investment Dar is planning to present its $3.5 billion restructuring plan to creditors soon.
  
• Gulf Finance House received a $100 million convertible murabaha facility from Deutsche Bank, which follows its $100 million convertible murabaha from Macquarie Bank. This is a part of the firm's efforts to "redesign" their business model.
  
• Luxembourg would 'welcome' the establishment of an Islamic bank. The President of the Central Bank, Yves Mersch, says that "We had Islamic banking institutions in the seventies which discontinued its services and as for now there is no Islamic bank that operates in Luxembourg, but there is no prohibition to have a setup of such an institution".
  
• Sarasin, the Swiss firm offering a Shari'ah-compliant wealth management offering will start with the Gulf but also include Southeast Asia next.
  
• Malaysia continues to see growth in its domestic Islamic finance industry.
  
• The Islamic Development Bank is going to offer financing of $1 billion to agricultural projects with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
  

Mid-week update

• Malaysia will sell MYR3 billion (about $1 billion) in 30-year Islamic savings bonds this year.
  
• The BBC has a piece on the growth in Islamic finance.
  
• The wealthiest Muslims did not embrace Islamic finance, but in the wake of the credit crisis, Islamic wealth managers think they could shift their assets towards Shari'ah-compliant investments to reduce their risk exposure and protect their assets.
  
• Amiri Capital is launching their Islamic hedge fund-of-funds. The launch was delayed when Lehman Brothers, the original partner in the effort, went bust.
  
• The merger of Amlak and Tamweel, the two troubled Dubai Islamic mortgage companies, could be completed this summer. A decision on the structure of the merger is expected "soon".
  
• Seven people were charged in a fraud that involved receiving financing for fictional projects and companies from Dubai Islamic Bank and alleged kickbacks. Dubai Islamic Bank issued a statement on the investig.
  

IBB moves into continental Europe, Islamic wealth management

The Islamic Bank of Britain plans to open branches in Sweden and Germany. The branch in Sweden would be the country's first Islamic bank, although not the first 'interest-free' one. JAK Members Bank, a co-operative that began operating in 1970 and received a banking license in 1997, provides interest-free credit to its members with administrative costs paid for by annual membership fees. Currently the bank has 53,000 members and the total savings of € 97 million and borrowings of € 86 million as of 2008.

Douglas Johnson, CEO of Calyx Financial, discussed the need for more strategic work, particularly involving research into new products and approaches for Islamic wealth management to become more widely available. An edited version of his speech, given at the World Islamic Funds Conference in Dubai, is available online.

The Financial Times describes Islamic bank Gulf Finance House.

A story on the first Shari'ah-compliant car insurance company in the U.K., Salaam Insurance, includes a concise description of how takaful works.

The Islamic Development Bank has begun a sukuk issuance in Malaysia to fund the IsDB's work in the country.

India could emerge as a large market for Islamic finance if regulations are changed to allow Islamic banking. The Muslim population of India is estimated at 150 million. Islamic banking has been successful in Thailand, particularly in the southern region, which has a significant Muslim population. The Islamic Bank of Thailand is the country's main bank.

Malta's Financial Services Authority ended its consultation period on Islamic financial products and plans to issue guidelines for sukuk by the end of 2008 and for takaful in early 2009.

IIFF Europe to be held in Switzerland, new Islamic funds transfer system

IIFF Europe to be held in Switzerland

The International Islamic Finance Forum (IIFF) Europe will held in Switzerland from November 12-15, 2007. There are two cities, Geneva and Zurich, in one of which the IIFF will be held. The conference will focus on Shari'ah-compliant wealth management and private banking. The conference will be added to the IHI conference listings.

Funds transfer system begins between Saudi Arabia and Malaysia

Saudi-based Al Rajhi Bank which also operates in Malaysia has developed a funds transfer system between Malaysia and Saudi Arabia where a card would be purchased in Malaysia allowing withdrawals from Al Rajhi banks in Saudi Arabia. The system will be rolled out to other countries although Malaysia will remain as a hub.

Other news

Derivative technology is now being used with contracts like mudaraba and arboun to replicate swaps and options.

Maybank issues $300 million sukuk.