Takaful shortfalls, Islamic money markets, Shari'ah scholars

Takaful
Reuters has a fascinating article about takaful and specifically what happens if the policy holders' pool is in deficit. The article highlights a discrepancy between the regulatory view and the Shari'ah view. The regulatory view says that the shareholders of the takaful provider should be responsible for shortfalls (through a letter of guarantee for any shortfall) and the policyholders should benefit from the gain on any investments financed by the shareholders' funds. However, the Shari'ah view, as articulated in the article, says that policy holders should contribute to finance any shortfall and if there is a letter of guarantee but no cash drawn, the shareholders should receive the benefit. This is an issue that I had not spent much time thinking about, although I have acknowledged that the lack of sukuk and other fixed income products have made a shortfall more likely because the funds contributed by policy holders are invested in riskier assets than the premiums paid into conventional insurers (which are typically invested in bonds). There are no specific examples mentioned, which increases the risk to takaful companies and policy holders without significant experience where shortfalls are actually experienced and managed. However, based on the general trend for Islamic financial products to mirror conventional products, I think it is extremely unlikely that policy holders would be forced to make additional contributions to cover a shortfall.

Islamic finance needs money market to grow
Bloomberg has an article with several interesting comments from Mohamad Nedal Alchaar, secretary-general of AAOIFI. In addition to his comments about the need for more Shari'ah-compliant money market products to facilitate better liquidity management, he warned about "overexposure" to a single industry by Islamic financial institutions. His call is welcome given the fallout from the global financial crisis and property boom and bust in parts of the GCC, and it adds to the recognition that Islamic finance was hurt by the global financial crisis but this damage was accentuated by a concentration of investments in a few industries. He also warned that if there is not more done to create a more transparent forum for Shari'ah scholars to reach consensus from an industry body on products where there are no existing fatawa, the industry would remain dependent on a "fatwa-by-fatwa basis". While it is not surprising to hear the head of a standard setting body call for Shari'ah standards to involve an industry body, his point could strike a healthy balance between individual institutions being able to develop new products if their Shari'ah boards approve and the need for greater consensus among scholars through a central forum without requiring what could become rigid standardized fatawa.

Shari'ah scholars
Another article on the development of a younger group of Shari'ah scholars includes a profile of Taha Abdul-Basser, a scholar and the Muslim chaplain at Harvard University. Congratulations to him for being recognized and profiled as one of the prominent younger Shari'ah scholars who will be responsible for continuing the growth in Islamic finance that the senior scholars helped create during the past 35 years.

Other News

• Qatar issued its first local-currency bond of the year yielding 6.5% and sukuk of the year with a $2.75 billion issue split evenly between a conventional bond subscribed by five conventional banks and sukuk, which was purchased by four Islamic banks.
  
• A firm with links in the Middle East is planning to launch an Islamic REIT in Singapore. There is currently one Islamic REIT in Singapore and plans for another later this year.
  
• Four mostly state-owned companies in Abu Dhabi are cooperating to launch a takaful company in the Emirate.
  
• Tabreed, the National Cooling Company in Dubai which missed a payment on its sukuk, may sell conventional or Islamic debt as a part of its recapitalization program.
  
• A Malaysian firm is planning an Islamic gold ETF in the country. There is currently only one Islamic gold ETF, the Dubai Gold Securities. In addition, companies like Bullion Management Group in Canada offer a gold bullion fund that is Shari'ah-compliant.
  
• The CIS has potential for Islamic finance, but there is little legislation in place that enables Islamic finance, according to a summary of a conference in Moscow written by Mushtak Parker in Arab News.
  
• Indonesian sukuk issuance is expected to rise 10-20% compared to last year according to the CEO of HSBC Amanah, Mukhtar Hussain. He said that the Asian economies have had a limited impact from the European debt crisis. Sukuk issuance was $23.3 billion in 2009, which was lower than the peak of $34.3 billion issued in 2007 according to Standard & Poor's.
  
• The Central Bank of Bahrain short-term sukuk al-salam issue was oversubscribed by over 400 percent. The sukuk matures in 91 days and has an expected return of 0.85%.
  
• Khaleej Times has an article on Islamic finance business education.
  

Dubai World, Saad Group

The Dubai World debt negotiations hit another potential snag with the repayment of the Nakheel sukuk maturing in May becoming more likely even without a restructuring deal. This compounds the issues caused by the offer of a 1% interest rate for banks who are owed money by Dubai World at the same time that trade creditors are offered 40% cash payment with the remaining 60% paid through a sukuk yielding 10%. A top official at Al Ghurair, which is described as a 'key trade creditor' by Emirates Business 24/7, said the 10% profit was "very generous".

I have previously questioned whether the restructuring would incorporate Shari'ah-complaince and there still has not been a complete reporting of this aspect of the restructuring. However, the use of a sukuk to repay trade creditors indicates that Dubai World remains interested in Islamic finance. The big potential problem is the differential treatment of different creditors, most of which are unsecured creditors. Banks are offered 1%, trade creditors offered 10% on a portion with the remaining being repaid while sukuk holders of the sukuk maturing next month receive full repayment. This differential treatment does no favors to Islamic finance because it reinforces the uncertainty about the rights of creditors in one of the largest geographical concentrations of sukuk issuers. This will make it more difficult for issuers to bring new sukuk to market because although the problems are largely Dubai-related, the uncertainty is generalized to the UAE, if not the GCC. Although the debt holders would suffer delays and would probably come out worse for it, for the Islamic finance industry, it may have been preferable for the whole Dubai World mess to end up in the tribunal in front of internationally recognized judges under DIFC law, which closely resembles English law.

Sukuk holders of the Saad Group have agreed to dissolve the sukuk trust. According to a Reuters factbox, the Saad Group sukuk was an asset-based sukuk, which would mean that the dissolution of the sukuk trust does not provide investors with an avenue to recover their money except through a bankruptcy proceeding as unsecured creditors of Saad Group, where they would be treated equally (pari passu) with other unsecured debt holders and subordinated to any secured creditors.

Khalil Jarrar has an interesting column in the latest Opalesque Islamic Finance Intelligence.

My latest article on the East Cameron sukuk was published by Islamic Business & Finance in the latest issue.

Other News

• The World Bank and the International Finance Corporation will be in Malaysia to discuss a Shari'ah-compliant fund for green technology investments.
  
• The relative strengths and weaknesses of using equity vs. debt in Islamic finance acording to an executive at Elaf Bank in Bahrain.
  
• Arcapita is planning to build a fund management business to reduce the cyclicality of revenues in the private equity business. I believe this is something that more Islamic investment banks and private equity houses will undertake to smooth their revenues and reduce the prospects of being severely harmed in future downturns and this is good for the industry as a whole.
  
• The Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange may begin to indicate which investments are Shari'ah-compliant and which are not.
  
• The CEO of a Malaysian invesmtent bank, Alliance Investment Bank, says that sukuk have a promising future.
  
• Kencana Petroleum Bhd, a Malaysian oil and gas services company, is planning to issue $78 million (MYR250 million) in sukuk sales. Cagamas issued $156 million (MYR500 million) in 5 year sukuk that were rated AAA by MARC because Cagamas is state-owned.
  
• Indonesia issued $22 million in sukuk, about 20% of its planned offering. Demand was limited, according to reports, because of limited liquidity in the sukuk.
  
• KPMG in India has expressed support for the development of guidance from the central bank for Islamic financial institutions in the country which have been slow to develop.
  
• The latest monthly commentary abou the performance of the Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes for April is now available.
  
• Dundee University in Scotland will offer a postgraduate degree in Islamic finance.
  
• AsiaOne has a summary of Islamic finance structures that are commonly used.
  
• The company offering Salaam Halal, Principle Insurance Holdings, has been sold to a Kuwaiti buyer who was one of the largest shareholders.
  
• AAOIFI will hold its annual meeting at the end of May.
  
• The new Christian ETFs will not be a competition to Islamic financial products, but will encourage greater uptake of ethical products, according to an article in the Malaysian Insider.
  

New Islamic bank to have $200 billion in capital; Rushdi Siddiqui on 'opportunity' for Islamic finance

The mega Islamic bank being planned for launch in Bahrain at some point this year will have total capital of $200 billion, according to Sheikh Saleh Kamel, president of Saudi bank Dallah Albaraka Group. The banks shareholders will include the Islamic Development Bank, Albaraka Group, Kuwait Real Estate Bank and '10 other banks'. $100 billion will be raised in investment funds and sukuk. There is a $3 billion IPO that will be listed in Dubai and Bahrain, probably in the fourth quarter. The new bank will be named either "Al-Istikhlaf or Al-Emaar" according to Kamel.

Rushdi Siddiqui, the head of Islamic finance for ThomsonReuters and formerly head of Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes is quoted describing the 'unprecedented' opportunity available to Islamic finance:

"This is an unprecedented opportunity to seek a 'new or improved' financial intermediation, investing and trading paradigm. In fact I'd go as far as saying that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to present an ethical alternative to what has been described as an unscrupulous, often highly leveraged instruments, derivatives based without the base investments. Shari'ah law really could be an interesting pathway for G-20 countries on asset backed/based financial intermediation, investing and trading"

France may be the next country in Europe to encourage the development of Islamic finance alongside conventional banking like the U.K. has done. Between 5 and 10% of the country's population is Muslim.

The huge interest in the Indonesian sovereign sukuk may pave the way for other sukuk issuance. The global credit crisis and revisions to AAOIFI standards for sukuk have significantly dampened issuance of new sukuk in the past 4 or 5 quarters.

AAOIFI head criticizes the chairman of AAOIFI Shari'ah board; Islamic Development Bank launches work team to monitor credit crisis

The Islamic Development Bank is establishing a work team of experts to monitor the effect of the current financial crisis on the Islamic financial crisis. I think it is a good move and recognizes that, although the ethical requirements on the Islamic finance industry can help mitigate the effects, the industry is not completely unscathed from spill-over effects of the financial crisis. The spill-over flows through the conventional credit markets (many if not most sukuk are priced in connection with the LIBOR) and the effects of the crisis on the underlying global economy. While there is little that the work group can do to reduce the effects of the crisis on the Islamic finance industry, monitoring it closely can allow early moves to head off serious repercussions.

The head of AAOIFI, the global standard-setting body, lashed out at the head of the Shari'ah board, Sheikh Taqi Usmani, at the International Islamic Finance Forum for comments about the Shari'ah-compliance of sukuk that were followed by a drop in issuance in sukuk. Mohamad Nedal Alchaar said "The statements that were made by our sharia chairman about the sharia compliance of sukuk wrecked the market". While the timing of the comments were inauspicious, there is little doubt that the financial crisis wracking credit markets worldwide had far more to do with the fall off in sukuk issuance. Sheikh Usmani's comments, to be fair, were not followed quickly by a statement from the full AAOIFI Shari'ah board (that followed several months later). However, the comments in and of themselves, will probably benefit the industry in the long run by pushing the sukuk market, and hopefully Islamic finance in general, towards more differentiation with the conventional financial markets. Until now, most Islamic financial products have emerged from a process of 'Islamicising' of conventional products and have largely the same structure. What Sheikh Usmani was advocating (which was confirmed in the follow-on statement from the AAOIFI Shari'ah board) was removing fixed redemption of sukuk at maturity. This was instituted initially so that it resembled conventional bonds. Forcing instead on repurchase at market prices creates more risk-sharing because sukuk holders share in the appreciation or depreciation of the underlying assets used to back sukuk.

The shortage of qualified professionals, trained in Islamic finance rather than structured finance, could reduce the future growth rate in the Islamic financial industry, according to INCIEF CEO Agil Natt. Ahlibank deputy CEO Yehia Elbatrawi believes that, although the Islamic finance industry has been relatively unscathed by the credit crisis, it is at risk from an overexposure to real estate and private equity: "some of these markets are overpriced, which increases the exposure of many Islamic banks". Shari'ah-compliant investments, although shielded from a lot of the damage have seen indexes screened for Shari'ah-compliance lose $5.6 trillion in value, according to Standard & Poors.

Islam (and other religions) bring ethics back to the financial industry...and to Bosnia. Other countries are also changing regulation to attract capital from the Middle East by encouraging Islamic finance. The U.S. is even getting involved at a governmental level. U.S. deputy secretary of the Treasury Robert M. Kimmitt is in the Middle East learning more about Islamic finance. He noted that Treasury Department officials are increasing their familiarity with the industry and although he was "not sure that Islamic banking will also be itemized in the agenda, but it is a subject that is often dwelt in the public and private sector".

Another sukuk, planned by Deyaar, has been delayed. It's CEO, Markus Giebel says, "There is very little liquidity in the market right now and to launch a sukuk would be foolish. We have to obey market conditions and so we have delayed it but not cancelled our plan for it,"